Flooding Risk Increasing This Weekend and Next Week
Heavy rains and thunderstorms will be the rule for the next week. In the past few months, it has been rainy for much of the Ohio River Valley and the south, where there are persistent river flood warnings and the soils are saturated.
The past few days have been mostly dry in these areas, but there are increasing signals of the potential for regional flooding for the next week.
The weather forecast center has identified minor and minor risks for flooding on Saturday. Individual flood reports are possible as heavy rain and thunderstorms train over areas with saturated soils. The darker green colors indicate places where heavy rainfall can lead to a higher flood potential. Saturday will bring a chance for storms in the central US and Texas. Areas already saturated could see the floods return quickly. South Texas is another area where flooding still needs to be monitored today.
Sunday’s focus on heavy rain and flooding is on the southern plains. Southern Oklahoma and north-central Texas are at low risk of flooding, while the borderline risk extends from near St. Louis, Missouri to central Texas. Thunderstorms with heavy rain can result in additional flood reports as the rain drains away.
A separate area for potential flooding includes eastern Colorado east of the I-25 corridor. Storms that come from the Rockies with heavy rain can overwhelm saturated soils.
An upper low in the southwest will remain in place for the entire weekend before taking off for the Rocky Mountains and Plains on Monday. This low will draw moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the plains, where further rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected in Missouri, Oklahoma, and north-central Texas from Monday to mid-next week. Similar to Sunday, in the eastern plains of Colorado, storms with heavy rain will pull away from the Rocky Mountains in the afternoon, potentially leading to increased flood potential.
The pattern will remain very active through the middle and end of next week. Floods are likely in the plains, south, and the Ohio River Valley next week. In many of these places where flooding is already occurring, the soils are more than saturated.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are triggered on Saturday when energy comes from the Rocky Mountains.
When the low pressure system moves to the plains and stalls on Sunday, heavy rain and thunderstorms form near the frontal borders. Several rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible if the front lingers.
During the day it will rain heavier along and near the stalling front on Monday.
At the beginning of the working week for the central and southern plains there are more isolated storms with heavy rain at times.
The upper level low is really slowing down, so moisture from the Gulf of Mexico continues to flow north and be wrung out. The precipitation rates can be up to 2 ″ + per hour at times.
The GFS Model is a guide to general areas of heavy rain. It appears to be in the Red River and Mississippi valleys by the middle of next week. Remember, as this is a long-term forecast, things will continue to shift and update over the next few days.
This is a guide on where some of the heaviest rainfall could occur, but is not a set forecast. In general, 1 “-3” rain appears to be widespread, with localized areas having a rainfall accumulation of 4-6 “+. These areas are still soaked, so heavy rainfall can lead to flooding.
St. Louis, Missouri is one of the places that will stay stormy and wet for the next week.
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